Free-from porridge pots could fill the gap in the market for gluten-free staples and snacks: MINTEL

Free-from porridge pots could fill the gap in the market for gluten-free staples and snacks

Source: Mintel 03-05-2013

"To capitalise on consumer demand for convenient gluten-free everyday essentials and snacks, breakfast cereal manufacturers could look to innovate with gluten-free on-the-go products such as porridge pots."

For more information, please see Mintel’s Breakfast Cereals –UK August 2012 and Meat-Free and Free From Foods – UK September 2012

What we’ve seen

●              Despite an overall decline in volume sales in the UK breakfast cereal market, hot cereals achieved healthy 4.2% volume growth in 2012.

●              The majority (57%) of breakfast cereal users would prefer more convenient packaging in cereals, and 30% think that porridge is inconvenient to prepare.

●              At 9%, the share of the UK population that avoids gluten is broadly on a par with the 8% who avoid eating nuts and comparable to the share of those who don’t consume dairy products.

Hot cereals are driving value growth in the UK breakfast cereal market

Volume sales in the UK breakfast cereals market have fallen each consecutive year since 2010, as the category struggles to compete with other breakfast options. Porridge is the only category in which a countertrend is visible; Mintel’s Breakfast Cereals –UK, August 2012 estimates that volume sales of hot cereals increased by 12% between 2007 and 2012, while hot cereal value sales skyrocketed by 79% to a total of £204m.

The on-the-go breakfast cereal pots market is growing faster than the in-home segment, partly thanks to its growth coming from a low base, and is helping to attract new customers to the category. As 57% of breakfast cereal users say they are interested in more convenient packaging for cereals, and 30% agree that porridge is inconvenient to prepare, it is not surprising that the convenient on-the-go pots segment is doing so well.

FIGURE 1: ANNUAL % CHANGE IN UK VALUE SALES OF BREAKFAST CEREALS, BY SEGMENT, 2008-17

Base:

* Mintel estimate **Mintel forecast

MINTEL/BASED ON SYMPHONYIRI GROUP INFOSCAN

Specialist brands target coeliacs with gluten-free porridge

Late 2012 and the first months of 2013 have seen the launch of a number of porridge products that target the UK gluten-free market. Free-from specialists such as Perk!er Foods and Nairn’s have introduced new gluten-free porridge products, while Waitrose has also strengthened its presence in this market with the launch of its Waitrose Love Life Free From Porridge Oats.

Beyond premium, specialist brands such as these, gluten-free NPD in the UK breakfast cereals category has been fairly limited.

  

Consumer interest in gluten-free staples and snacks

So how widespread is consumer demand for gluten-free products?

One in ten UK consumers report that someone in their household avoids gluten either because of an allergy/intolerance or as part of a general healthy lifestyle according to Mintel’s Meat-Free and Free-From Foods – UK September 2012. As 12% of consumers who have bought free-from food say the whole family eats these foods because one member has an allergy/intolerance, the actual number of consumers who consume gluten-free product may be significantly larger than 9% of the population. Notably, 8% of adults report buying gluten-free products.

However, the free-from market appears to be underserved when it comes to certain types of food. Of UK consumers who have bought free-from food, 36% say they would like to see a wider range of everyday essentials, and 35% would like to see a wider range of on-the-go/snack items in free-from foods. With breakfast cereals positioned both as everyday and as on-the-go products, there may be a match between what free-from consumers want and what breakfast cereal manufacturers could offer.

FIGURE 2: ATTITUDES TOWARDS FREE-FROM FOODS, JUNE 2012

Base: 297 internet users aged 16+ who have bought free-from foods

GMI/MINTEL

Opportunities for affordable and convenient gluten-free breakfast cereals

Many of the leading food retailers have in recent years actively expanded their free-from foods offering. However, the likes of Waitrose, Tesco or Sainsbury’s that do offer some own-label gluten-free breakfast cereals tend to focus on larger packs that are not as convenient for snacking and on-the-go occasions as the highly successful porridge pots.

The market for conveniently-packaged gluten-free breakfast cereals thus remains in the hands of the specialists recently entering it, yet there is scope for the own-brand operators to expand into this segment.

What it means

●              The hot cereals segment is expected to drive sales in the UK breakfast cereal category due to growing consumer interest in warm breakfast and snack options.

●              There is a sizeable demand among free-from food users for more everyday essentials and snack products, which items such as gluten-free porridge pots could meet.

●              Gluten-free porridge pots could offer a further expansion target for own-brands, following their recent activity in free-from.

The Future of Food (BOOK) by Brian J. Ford

The Future of Food (BOOK) by Brain J. Ford

United Kingdom: 2000: Thames & Hudson Ltd.

Notes

“Problems arise because we now eat a diet where the components are chosen by producers, so we can be attracted to foods that are rich in sugar or salt, or contain far more saturated fats that anything for we which evolved.” P. 9

“In the past, we ate in order to postpone starvation and gratify ourselves. In the future, we will choose food to enable us to relish life to the fullest extent.” p. 18

“In the future, people will be tested for such intolerances and will bear a record of these on a smart-card. The use of swipe-terminals technology will make it easy for people to select foods that agree with them. Physical complaints due to food intolerances, within a few decades, will largely be eliminated in the Western world.” P. 63

“Flavourings will be the hallmark of future food production. Potato and rice snacks are already in production with synthetic flavours (chicken or prawn, cheese and chives, etc.) These are popular choices for vegetarians and slimmer’s.” p. 98-99

“Food technologists are now proposing to engineer ‘designer vegetables’, like meat-flavoured tomatoes or prawn flavoured potatoes. Banana- flavoured Brussels sprouts are even under consideration. These may sound abhorrent, but it has always been the setting of unexpected flavours in juxtaposition that has led to the development of new foods.” P. 99

“Dieting for weight loss is due to be replaced by dieting for health. In the recent past, there have been many fad diets that have little scientific evidence to support them. Some have restricted foods, or placed them in groups; some claims have been made that consuming certain foods will consume more energy that the food itself contains.” P. 105

“The diets of the future should encourage people to enjoy their food. The mainstream food categories of the present day world will largely disappear. Millions of people are unwell because of reactions to dairy produce and to the gluten in bakery goods. At present, these foods are regarded as essentially healthy and natural, but in the future we will recognise that neither category is natural, and for many they are a hazard”. P. 106

Gluten-Free Diet: a Cure for Some, a Fad for Most (ARTICLE)

In not quite 1 percent of Americans, consuming gluten damages the small intestine and impairs its ability to absorb nutrients. For such people, whose condition is known as celiac disease, doctors prescribe a gluten-free diet like Flolo's. But as far as Flolo knows, he does not have celiac disease. In fact, surveys show that about 15 to 25 percent of consumers report looking for gluten-free products, apparently far eclipsing the number put on the diet by their doctors, says Cynthia Kupper, a dietitian and the executive director of the Gluten Intolerance Group. While there's no firm evidence that the diet is helping them, most nutritionists say there's nothing known to be risky about it either.

For those who have a clear medical need for gluten-free products, the surge in options is a boon. "Gluten-free food used to taste like cardboard," says Nina Glaser, 25, a student at the Maryland Institute College of Art who has celiac disease and has been eating no gluten for six years. Now, she says, tasty options abound. According to the research firm Mintel, the number of newly introduced gluten-free products has skyrocketed from about 135 in 2003 to 832 that debuted in 2008, and the company forecasts steady 15-to-25-percent growth in gluten-free product sales in coming years.

To make matters more complicated, some people who test negative for celiac disease nevertheless seem to feel better when they go gluten free. As much as 15 percent of the population may fit into this "gluten sensitive" category. It's not clear how prevalent gluten sensitivity is among the consumers who opt to go gluten free without consulting a doctor.

Unproved. Beliefs some advocates have about the diet don't entirely square with medical evidence. It's been said that gluten exacerbates the symptoms of autism, for example, and that dropping it from one's diet can lead to weight loss. An evidence review conducted by the Cochrane Collaboration and published in 2008 found that only two reliable studies have examined gluten and autism. They had conflicting findings--and involved a mere 35 participants in total. The Cochrane researchers conclude more rigorous research is needed before clinicians can recommend the diet as a treatment.

There's even less evidence that the diet produces weight loss. It's well known among people with celiac disease--who are sometimes underweight to begin with--that a gluten-free diet typically causes weight gain, says Vanessa Maltin, a spokesperson for the National Foundation for Celiac Awareness. For healthy people who abstain from gluten, it might come down to what substitute they use. Many gluten-free products contain extra sugar or fat to make them more palatable. Yet alternative grains such as quinoa, amaranth, and millet are tasty, packed with healthful nutrients, and little used in American recipes.

Meantime, as gluten-free eating becomes faddish, there's worry that respect for the diet as a medical treatment could founder. "We have to be careful that [the diet's popularity] doesn't negate the seriousness of the situation for people with celiac disease," says Carol Shilson, executive director of the Celiac Disease Research Center at the University of Chicago. She has celiac disease, and a tiny piece of bread can produce a rash and stomach pain. It's important that waiters and cooks, she says, are vigilant about making sure her food doesn't get contaminated with even a small amount of gluten.

Ethical Marketing and the New consumer by Chris Arnold (BOOK)

Chichester, U.k: Wiley 2009

Quotes

"The recession has already resulted in a reduction in sales of ready meals, with families cooking at home rather than eating processed foods." p. 185-186

"Convenience and value are still key factors for time poor consumers who are no longer cash rich. Those that can blend all these factors will be the winners over the next decade" p. 186

 "There has been a popular growth in healthier foods, especially those that promote disease preventative properties beyond the nutritional content of the food. More conscientious consumers want things (they perceive to be) less processed, preferring to buy more natural products. Many shoppers are sceptical  about health claim benefits but digestive health has been a new sector that has exploded, backed up by big marketing budgets." p. 186

"A big increase in hypochondria and (a disbelief) in allergies and food intolerances have seen a 20% growth of free-from ranges- 25% of consumers now buy a free-from product, a category worth £190 million. Soya sales are growing 8.7% year on yea... and soya has found new audiences, through both taste and its association with a generally healthier lifestyle." p. 187

"Aplro has expanded the soya market by moving into other dairy categories and has refrained itself successfully from a niche product to a mainstream healthy lifestyle brand." p. 187

"Up to 40% are not health or waistline concious; reflected in what they buy and feed their kids" (UK) p. 189

"Where marketing can be blamed is when it spins health claims. Reducing fat but increasing sugar doesn't make a product less calorific. Yet thats exactly what some brands have done. " p. 190

"There does seem to be a need for some form of information and education to help consumers make informed decisions about what they eat." p. 193

"Educated consumers can decide how they want to balance their diet, but a decieved consumer cant" p. 196 

Gluten-free remains one of the most dynamic health and wellness categories: GMID 2011

Gluten-free remains one of the most dynamic health and wellness categories

Article | 01 Feb 2011

Gluten-free food has delivered an outstanding performance for quite a number of years. Even in recession-hit 2009, the category achieved double-digit global value sales growth of 11% (calculated based on a 2009 fixed US$ exchange rate), compared to a much more sedate 3% for overall health and wellness products. Over the 2004-2009 review period gluten-free food registered a CAGR of 15%, a stronger performance than the 10% achieved by the food intolerance category as a whole.

In 2009, gluten-free food registered global value sales of US$2.3 billion, accounting for 27% of food intolerance sales. Half of these sales were generated by bakery products, traditionally the most relevant category. Baby food and pasta are also sizeable categories, accounting for around 10% of total sales each. Other gluten-free foods – anything from sauces and condiments to desserts – are also proliferating, with combined global value sales of US$642 million in 2009, and a very dynamic growth rate of 15%.

Allergy to gluten - a common problem

There are several factors fuelling the rampant growth of gluten-free food. For one, coeliac disease, a genetic disorder requiring sufferers to follow a life-long gluten-free diet, is much more common than was once thought. Coeliac disease only started receiving attention in the 1960s when the focus was mainly on infants who were failing to thrive. Back then, the condition was estimated to affect one in every 1,000 live births and believed to afflict predominantly babies of Caucasian ethnicity. Adults with mild and “non-classical” symptoms remained largely undiagnosed.
Finally, in the late 1990s, reliable blood tests became more widely available and the medical world was hit by the profound realisation that coeliac disease was by no means a rare condition – incidence figures had suddenly leapt to one out of every 100-300 individuals in the general population worldwide. Equally significant was the conclusion that coeliac disease was a global problem affecting people of all ethnicities, rather than just those of European origin.
But improved diagnostic methods are only part of the story behind the gluten-free food boom. Increasing media coverage of the sheer array of insidious symptoms suffered by gluten-intolerant individuals, such as fatigue, weight gain, skin rashes and lack of concentration, has turned gluten almost into an “enemy of wellness”. Nowadays, a significant proportion of gluten-free shoppers are not diagnosed coeliacs but individuals who have diagnosed themselves as being sensitive to gluten, and are cutting it out of their diets with the aim of improving their wellbeing.
Retailers the world over have not only responded to this trend but have actively aided its growth by stocking an increasing number of gluten-free brands and introducing gluten-free private label lines. In some countries, the private label share is substantial. For instance, Euromonitor International's research shows that in Austria private label accounted for 31% of gluten-free product value sales in 2009, up from 24% in 2004. In Switzerland, it accounted for a 62% share in 2009, in the UK 31% and in Ireland 16%. Globally private label accounts for around a 3% share of total gluten-free product value sales. Retailers have therefore proven to be an instrumental force in moving gluten-free from a medicalised niche category into the realm of mainstream health and wellness foods.

Mainstream players tackle gluten-free

The US is the largest market for gluten-free products, generating around half of total global value sales in 2009, followed by Germany, Italy and the UK. In addition to its formidable size, the US's gluten-free category also exceeded those of all other markets in terms of dynamism, with impressive value growth of 17% in 2009. Glutino USA, a specialist gluten-free product manufacturer headquartered in Canada, claimed the biggest share of 18% that year. However, the company's share had slipped from 20% in 2007. This trend is not only the result of retailers' efforts to push their private label lines, but is also down to mainstream food companies coming up with gluten-free brand extensions.
For instance, in 2008, General Mills, the US's second-ranking breakfast cereal maker, reformulated its Rice Chex cereal to be gluten-free, followed by other gluten-free offerings. In January 2010, Post Foods LLC (GBO Ralcorp Holdings Inc) re-launched its Post Fruity and Cocoa Pebbles brands with a new gluten-free certification and reduced-sugar content. Clearly, these companies are tapping into the growing parental inclination to minimise and/or remove any “undesirable” constituents from their children's breakfast cereals.
The same is happening the world over, across all categories. In the UK, the world's fourth biggest market for gluten-free products, top-ranking bread manufacturer Warburtons entered the gluten-free category in January 2011 with the launch of white and brown loaves, rolls as well as teacakes and crumpets. The company reported that it had invested £2.5 million (US$3.9 million) in building a dedicated bakery for its gluten-free products, with a vision for further expansion in 2011.
Separate facilities will enable Warburtons to minimise the risk of gluten contamination, which is a core problem for mainstream food manufacturers using the same facilities for all their lines. Indeed, the cost and effort involved in establishing separate supply chains and production facilities is one of the main reasons why the gluten-free category continues to be dominated by smaller specialist producers. The top-ranking manufacturer of gluten-free foods is Dr Schär, based in Italy, with a global 2009 value share of 12%, and 25% in its Western European home region. Now that mainstream players and retailers are becoming heavily involved in the fast-growing gluten-free category, specialist producers need to up the ante in order to remain competitive.

Focus on nutrition to stop growth from fizzling out

Despite the gluten-free category's flagrant dynamism, some commentators have voiced concerns that it may be unable to maintain its growth trajectory over the medium to long term, and that it may even decline. Such gloomy projections are based on the argument that the gluten-free boom is akin to a fad diet trend, like the rather short-lived low-carb craze which started in the late 1990s, peaked at almost US$3 billion in global value sales in 2004, and has been on a decline since then, languishing way below the US$1 million mark in 2009.
There may be some merit to this argument considering that a large part of gluten-shunning consumers are of the self-diagnosed persuasion, looking to alleviate troublesome symptoms which may be completely unrelated to the presence of gluten in their diets. However, consumers interested in boosting their wellbeing by means of dietary improvements are not merely focused on eliminating potentially allergenic food constituents from their meals. What they tend to want is tasty, highly nutritious products. So, while it is important to get the gluten out, manufacturers should not forget about putting nutrition in, if they want to ensure continued growth.
Health professionals often make the point that many gluten-free products provide sub-standard levels of essential nutrients. For instance, an article published by the Harvard Medical School in spring 2009 criticised manufacturers of gluten-free foods for churning out products made from highly refined starches and gluten-replacers like xanthan gum, which lack any nutritional value beyond empty calories. Gluten-containing wheat flour, even the refined type, is at least fortified with vitamins and minerals in most countries. In the UK and Australia, for example, fortification is required by law.
The industry cannot really be blamed for hoisting its primary focus onto the palatability aspect when developing a wide array of new gluten-free products. After all, consumer acceptance hinges on getting the texture and the taste right. Now that this hurdle is being overcome, it is time to home in on nutrition, and there is already some activity on this front.
For instance, a team of Serbian researchers published a paper in the industry journal Food Hydrocolloids in early 2010, which reported promising results in creating baked products using a gluten-free flour mixture composed of rice and highly nutritious buckwheat. In 2009, researchers at Alberta Agriculture and Rural Development in Canada, in conjunction with the industry body Pulse Canada, developed gluten-free chickpea crackers featuring an iron content three to six times higher than that of similar products found on retail shelves. Flours derived from other legumes, such as red lentil, pinto and navy bean, were also tested, but chickpea flour scored best in terms of palatability and processing characteristics.
Researchers from the Department of Food Engineering at the Middle East Technical University in Turkey successfully experimented with chestnut flour and found that it enhanced the level of B-vitamins, iron, folate, potassium, magnesium and dietary fibre in gluten-free products. The results were published in the Journal of Food Engineering in the summer of 2010, with the conclusion that a 30/70 chestnut/rice flour ratio with a xanthan-guar emulsifier blend yielded the best results.
Apart from replacing standard gluten-free flours with those made from “superfood” grains and legumes, functional ingredients are also being explored to enhance the nutritional merit of a gluten-free product. A particularly relevant study was carried out by the National Food Research Institute at the National Agriculture and Food Research Organisation in Japan, published in the spring of 2010 in the Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry. The researchers added glutathione, a tripeptide antioxidant compound which occurs naturally in the human body, to gluten-free rice bread. Not only did this improve the rising characteristics and volume of the final product, but there is also evidence that glutathione may reduce the allergenicity of foods, making it the perfect functional ingredient for foods positioned as food intolerance products.
Euromonitor International predicts that an increasing number of gluten-free product manufacturers will continue to push their offerings to evolve in line with more sophisticated consumer demands, helping the category to enjoy an above average 7% CAGR (compared to a CAGR of 3% for health and wellness as a whole) over the 2009-2014 forecast period.

Pasta's Journey from High Fibre to High Protein and Gluten Free: GMID 2014

Pasta’s Journey from High Fibre to High Protein and Gluten-Free

Opinion | 14 Jan 2014

Simone BarokeContributing Analyst
Changing consumer demands are pushing health and wellness-positioned pasta from the once overwhelmingly popular high fibre track towards a new high protein/low carb and gluten-free trajectory. This is no small feat for a product previously synonymous with carbohydrates and gluten-laden wheat, and it seems that the future of healthy pasta belongs to products which are high in protein as well as gluten-free.

Hard times for pasta

With a total volume CAGR of 2% over the 2008-2013 review period, the global pasta market is not exactly the poster child of dynamism. In many core markets, the situation is even less enchanting. In Italy, total volumes declined by 11% over the review period, while in Western Europe overall they remained completely stagnant. North America and Australasia only achieved marginal CAGRs of around the 1% mark.
Similar to what is happening in bread, pasta, by virtue of being a carbohydrate staple, is suffering from consumers eschewing carbohydrates, primarily in pursuit of weight management objectives. We have observed this trend at least once before, most notably at the height of the Atkins diet during the late 1990s/early 2000s. In addition, wheat and gluten avoidance is currently all the rage, which is not helping pasta sales either.

High protein on the verge of usurping high fibre

Until very recently, high fibre was the dominant trend in grain-based products, and one of the top trends in the health and wellness market overall. Our data show that, globally, naturally healthy high fibre food accounts for 16% of overall food positioned as naturally healthy (NH) in 2013. And while high fibre products remain popular, our figures confirm that high fibre is gradually losing traction as a USP. In the US, the most dynamic market during the high fibre boom, NH high fibre pasta value sales soared by 22% in 2010 on the previous year. In 2012, the growth rate halved while in 2013 it is set to barely reach 2%.
Observers of the health and wellness market will be well aware that the high protein trend is just about the hottest thing going at the moment. It all started in yoghurt, Greek yoghurt to be exact, but is now spreading like wildfire across virtually all categories, penetrating even those which previously had no link at all with protein. Pasta, always a carbohydrate staple and which has never been appreciated for its (naturally rather low) protein content, is a prime example of this.
In July 2013, Global Foods UK launched Dr Zak’s high protein pasta in the UK. The prime target audiences for its products, according to the company, are vegetarians seeking to augment their protein intake and consumers wanting to maintain a low carb diet, including diabetics.
In Australia, Rinoldi Pasta, the country’s sixth-ranking pasta maker, introduced the first offerings of its Vetta Smart Pasta range in December 2013, including High Protein Low Carb Penne, with further additions to the line-up planned by February 2014. There are two types - High Protein Low Carb and Cholesterol Lowering, the latter containing beta glucan derived from oat fibre.
Back in 2005, Italian-based Barilla, maker of the world’s leading eponymous pasta brand with a 25% value share of the US pasta market, introduced Barilla Plus, a multigrain pasta with added fibre and omega-3. Of late, however, the pasta titan has been making a rather big deal out of the fact that its product “delivers 27% more protein than Barilla’s traditional semolina pasta”. The company cites chickpeas, lentils and egg whites as the source. Barilla is keen to emphasise that these ingredients “are found in the Mediterranean diet and are considered heart-healthy choices” in order not to detract from the ‘naturalness’ and authenticity of the product.

Gluten-free enjoys rampant growth

While high protein is significantly taking off, our data show that the highest growth rates achieved by far in health and wellness-positioned pasta over the 2008-2013 review period came from gluten-free. On a global level, gluten-free pasta sales have rocketed by 74% over the past five years, and in the US by 88%. In the US, the trend is showing no signs of fading. In 2013, the category is anticipated growth of 15% compared to 11% the previous year.
There is certainly plenty of launch activity, notably from large mainstream players – a distinct change from the past era, when gluten-free was the domain of small specialist companies. Barilla launched a gluten-free dried pasta line in select stores in the US in September, with a national rollout expected in 2014. In the UK, Heinz introduced a new range of gluten-free pasta in November 2013, including 500g bags of penne, macaroni and spaghetti, accompanied by Tetra Paks of gluten-free tomato-based sauces.
Gluten-free pasta has excellent prospects over the medium to long term. On a global level, it is expected to achieve growth of 21% over the 2013-2018 forecast period, which is in line with the growth rate expected for these products in the US and the UK. The top five most buoyant growth markets are predicted to be Israel, with a 131% value sales increase, followed by Bulgaria (118%), Chile (75%), Finland (69%) and Venezuela (54%). Australia and Ireland are also forecast to deliver fairly dynamic performances of around the 40% mark.
A number of promising NPD efforts centring on today’s consumer demands for high protein pasta products which are at the same time gluten-free are afoot. For example, in March 2013, CSIR-Central Food Technological Research Institute in Mysore, India, reported in the LWT Food Science and Technology journal that it had developed a protein-rich, gluten-free pasta using high protein ingredients such as soy, chickpea and sorghum flours, and also whey protein concentrate.
Admittedly, India’s pasta market is still very much in its infancy, with retail value sales amounting to just US$6.2 million in 2013. However, this is more than double sales in 2008, demonstrating formidable dynamism. India’s urban middle-classes have similar health preoccupations to their counterparts elsewhere on the globe, and so high protein, low carb products are destined to find due resonance, particularly among consumers concerned about weight management, diabetes and heart health.
For further insight, please contact Ewa Hudson, Global Head of Health and Wellness Research at Euromonitor International, at ewa.hudson@euromonitor.com.

Medical Advances to Change the Face of Gluten Free: GMID 2012

Medical Advances to Change the Face of Gluten Free

Opinion | 24 Oct 2012

Simone BarokeContributing Analyst
Gluten-free food is flourishing, with strong growth set to continue over the next few years. In the medium-to-long term, however, two major medical developments currently in the pipeline will exert a lasting impact on the gluten-free food market: the cheap and rapid diagnosis of celiac disease, followed by the long-awaited vaccination against the disorder. 
Gluten free market explosion
Our latest health and wellness data show that, on a global level and based on fixed 2012 US$ exchange rates, gluten-free food experienced a 76% value sales increase over the 2007-2012 review period, reaching US$1.8 billion. In North America, sales more than doubled, in France they tripled, and in New Zealand, they rocketed by 426%. In Western Europe, where the category is most developed and where half the global sales are generated, value rose by a respectable 54%.

Over the past decade, the market for gluten-free products across the more highly developed markets has undergone a revolution, most notably their proliferation on the shelves of mainstream supermarkets. Prior to that, gluten free had been the preserve of pharmacies and specialist health food stores.
Gluten free’s distribution channel breakthrough was accompanied by a transformation from cardboard-textured buns and loaves and pasta of rather pallid appearance to a wide range of bakery and other food items just as pleasing to the palate as their standard, gluten-containing counterparts. Premium pricing has made gluten free an attractive diversification option for brand manufacturers and private label alike.
 A divided world
As for gluten-free consumers, there are essentially two types; those medically diagnosed with coeliac disease (an allergy to gluten that damages the intestinal lining), and those who believe that gluten avoidance will result in a wide range of health benefits, including weight loss and higher energy levels. And although there is, as yet, no sound scientific basis for the premise that gluten is in any way detrimental to the wellbeing of non-coeliacs, the concept has gained immense traction, not least through endorsement by a growing number of celebrities in recent years.               
While coeliac disease sufferers cannot tolerate any gluten at all and often have a tough time selecting suitable packaged food, particularly when eating out, the second group tends to be less stringent about its gluten-avoidance strategies. These consumers may, for instance, be fairly committed to purchasing gluten free for their weekly grocery shop, but not worry too much if there is no gluten-free food option on a restaurant’s menu, and they will happily indulge in the occasional slice of gluten-laden birthday cake, for example. Often, they will opt for products labelled ‘wheat free’, a category which has seen significant growth on the back of gluten free.
As a result, gluten free is also divided. On the one hand, there are genuine gluten-free products, usually carrying a gluten free label, and then there is another, much larger group of items, whose main ingredients are free of gluten, but which are liable to contain a minor additive with traces of gluten, and/or which may have been subject to accidental gluten contamination somewhere along the production process.
Breakfast cereals are a case in point. Corn and rice, for example, do not contain gluten, and hence one might assume that corn flakes and puffed rice cereals are gluten-free, but this is not necessarily the case. Due to auxiliary ingredients and/or gluten-containing grains (like wheat, barley and rye) being processed into breakfast cereals (and other bakery products) on the same production lines as non-gluten containing grains, traces of gluten can end up on the finished product. Kellogg, for one, cannot vouch for the total absence of gluten in its iconic Cornflakes. And although a growing number of mainstream bakery products manufacturers, like General Mills, have launched gluten-free ranges, including breakfast cereals, in recent years, many shy away from the investment required in setting up separate production facilities to avoid cross-contamination.
Accidental cross-contamination poses a particular problem in foodservice, where supposedly gluten-free foods and beverages are prepared on the same work surfaces using the same utensils as gluten-containing products. Starbucks and Domino’s Pizza are two high profile foodservice companies that have come under fire for their supposedly freshly prepared “gluten-free” hot beverages and pizza crusts in the past.
On the brink of a diagnostics revolution
Once thought to be a very rare disorder, it has now been recognised that coeliac disease affects about 1% of the population. This means that there are around 70 million coeliac sufferers across the world. However, most are not even aware that they are affected, and that their general malaise and unpleasant symptoms are down to a disease which compromises their digestive systems, rendering them unable to absorb sufficient nutrients from their diets.
Widespread lack of awareness in the medical community, compounded by complicated and costly means of diagnosis involving digestive tract tissue biopsies, have made a swift and accurate diagnosis of coeliac disease virtually impossible. Even within the European Union with its comprehensive and low cost (to patients) medical services coverage, only one in seven sufferers is accurately diagnosed, and it can take over a decade before a conclusive diagnosis is reached.
Fortunately, this is changing. In 2012, a four-year €12.8 million European Commission-funded project finally came to fruition. Soon, this breakthrough will allow a diagnosis to be made cheaply as well as rapidly, involving just a drop of blood applied to a so-called lab-on-a-chip-device.
This revolutionary new technology, developed by 19 partners including Kings College London, is called DC-Medics. It will be officially presented at MEDICA 2012, the largest medical trade fair in the world, due to take place in Düsseldorf, Germany, in November 2012. The project leaders expect the product to be market ready within two years.
Vaccine in the pipeline
The second medical milestone, which has the potential to significantly reshape the gluten-free market in years to come, is the development of a vaccine. To this day, coeliac disease is an incurable auto-immune disorder, which can only be managed by strict gluten-avoidance. But now there is a ray of hope on the horizon for millions of sufferers: In September 2012, US-based biotechnology company ImmunsanT reported that it had commenced clinical trials testing its Nexvax2 vaccine.
Nexvax2, according to the company, works by modulating coeliac sufferers’ immune systems into developing a tolerance to gluten, eventually allowing people to return to a normal diet without suffering any further ill effects. The company expects the vaccine to be potentially effective for 90% of coeliac sufferers. The stipulated year of release is 2017.
Gluten-free boom to continue indefinitely?
What do these new medical developments mean for the future of the Gluten-free Foods market? Well, in the short term, no significant changes are expected. We predict that over the 2012-2017 forecast period, global value sales are to rise by another 30%, equating to a CAGR of just over 5%. This is less than the double digit CAGR achieved over the review period, taking into account the impact of the global recession, encroaching market saturation in the most highly developed packaged food markets, and the gradual waning of the gluten-free celebrity trend, which has just about reached its peak by now.
The impact of the diagnostics revolution is unlikely to be felt before the end of the forecast period. The widespread dissemination and adoption of the novel DC-Medics technology across EU – and, eventually, worldwide – healthcare systems will require investment, training effort and, above all, time.
Once the number of medically diagnosed coeliac sufferers starts to rise in half a decade or so, this group may provide a counterbalance to the shrinking base of consumers adhering to the gluten-restriction trend. For the industry, this will mean a continued demand for bona fide gluten-free foods, but less of a market for those exposed to potential cross contamination or containing traces of gluten for other reasons, including wheat free options.
Looking ahead even further and assuming that the vaccination approach will prove effective, the number of coeliac sufferers may fall significantly. The practice of strict gluten avoidance is very onerous and socially restrictive, so most coeliac sufferers who have access to this kind of treatment are expected to venture down this route.
However, the total elimination of the disorder among the global consumer base is unlikely, as coeliac disease is caused by a range of genetic issues, not all of which may benefit from desensitisation treatment. Even among the 90% of sufferers, who, according to ImmusanT should respond to its Nexvax2 vaccine, a proportion may never develop the desired gluten tolerance. More insight into the success rates that are likely to be achieved in clinical practice should be gleaned once ImmusanT completes its clinical trials.
Given this, there will always be a market for gluten-free products, although growth rates are likely to level off in the medium to long term.